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Unit 1 · Discrete Structures and Optimisation Paper 2 CS · September 2022

There are three boxes. The first box has 2 white, 3 black and 4 red balls. The second box has 3 white, 2 black and 2 red balls. The third box has 4 white, 1 black and 3 red balls. A box is chosen at random and 2 balls are drawn, of which 1 is white and 1 is red. What is the probability that the balls came from the first box?

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Correct answer: A. 0.237

Explanation

P(E|B1) = (2×4)/C(9,2) = 8/36 = 2/9; P(E|B2) = (3×2)/C(7,2) = 6/21 = 2/7; P(E|B3) = (4×3)/C(8,2) = 12/28 = 3/7. By Bayes: (2/9) / (2/9 + 2/7 + 3/7) = 14/59 ≈ 0.237.

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